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RODERICK J. LITTLE - University of Michigan

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CLIFFORD C. CLOGG MEMORIAL LECTURE "Survey Sampling: Past Controversies, Current Orthodoxy, Future Paradigms"
04 November 2013 from 5:00 PM to 6:30 PM
102 Thomas Bldg.
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Probability sampling is the gold-standard method for obtaining valid inferences about populations with defensible statements of uncertainty. The increasing difficulty of obtaining probability samples at reasonable cost is spurring methodological debates. I describe what distinguishes survey sampling from other fields of statistics, and review two historical controversies that have shaped the field, namely random versus purposive selection, and design-based versus model-based inference. I then discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the current orthodoxy, and suggest an alternative paradigm, Calibrated Bayes, which I believe is better equipped to tackle current challenges.